NFL betting guide — Our best bets for Week 6 of the Westgate SuperContest

Baker Mayfield

Week 5 was a tough one for our SuperContest picks, going just 1-4 on Sunday on our best bets of the day.

It was a pretty crushing day all around, and one that could have been avoided had myself and my partner in picks not fallen for several clear traps. We fell in love with our hometown team and most criminally, bet against the Browns as home underdogs.

Looking back on the day, we felt we had overthought ourselves into a losing week — we essentially talked ourselves out of a few games that would have turned the tide back in our favor.

With that in mind, this week we attempted to keep things simple. When the SuperContest lines were published on Wednesday, the slate showed a whopping six teams as home underdogs in Week 6.

Rather than battle with ourselves again, we threw out our least favorite of the six (Dallas vs. Jacksonville) and rode the other five.

While this blind strategy might sound absurd, the math checks out, at least to a degree. Home underdogs were 14-7 against the spread heading into Week 6 according to Team Rankings, and backing a trend that was hitting at a two-out-of-three clip felt like a good way to recover after a losing week.

That said, things got off to an ugly start.

Below are our best bets for Week 5 of the NFL season.

SuperContest Pick 1: New York Giants (+3) over Philadelphia Eagles

YIKES! That was brutal.

After the Giants performance in Week 5 against the Panthers, I thought the team had things moving in the right direction. Reader, they did not.

New York is a disaster right now, and the team needs to start thinking about a future without Eli Manning.

Heading into the year, I was extremely high on the Giants — Saquon Barkley is a beast, and with an NFC East looking pretty open at the start of the year, it felt like New York was in a position to make some noise.

This faith has backfired in my face spectacularly — we’ve picked the Giants four times in the SuperContest, all of them losses. For now, we will not be betting on the Giants again until they look like a real NFL football team.

Anyways, the bet was locked in, there’s nothing we can do now. We are backing home underdogs. Trust the process.

SuperContest Pick 2: Cleveland Browns (+1) over Los Angeles Chargers

BakerMania! Now here is a guy I can get behind.

After foolishly betting against Baker Mayfield at home as an underdog last weekend, the gambling gods have blessed us with a second chance to make up for our misdeed. But while Mayfield gets the headlines, the Cleveland defense has truly been the star of the show for the Browns at home so far this season. 

The Browns have already had three of their five games go to overtime, and all three have come dangerously close to ending in a tie — since that’s the case, that normally irrelevant 1-point spread looks mighty tasty.

SuperContest Pick 3: Miami Dolphins (+3) over Chicago Bears

I was as impressed by Mitch Trubisky’s six touchdown performance as anyone, but it’s still a bit early to be having him as a road favorite.

While I have no idea how the Miami offensive line will be able to handle Khalil Mack and the Bears impressive defensive front, I do have faith in home underdogs, and coming off of consecutive losses, the Dolphins are likely undervalued.

See the rest of the story at Business Insider
Source: Business insider

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